Poll: Texas Republicans could lose U.S. Senate race

An internal poll conducted by former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale showed Ken Paxton trailing Colin Allred by double-digits.

Attorney General Ken Paxton is widely seen as a divisive figure across the state and polling from a GOP-firm shows Republicans could lose the Senate seat if he is the their nominee in 2026.

According to internal polling obtained by the Houston Chronicle, Ken Paxton would lose the race to Collin Allred by double-digits. The survey included over 1,000 respondents and shows Allred winning with 52% of the vote, while Paxton received 37%. This survey did not poll about any other Democratic candidates.

While there is still plenty of time from now until election day in November of 2026, the fact that these results come from an internal poll does not bode well for Ken Paxton’s chances. While Paxton remains the clear favorite on the GOP side, with primary polling giving him a wide lead over incumbent John Cornyn, Paxton faces an uphill battle in the general election.

Senator Cornyn has become a target for MAGA in recent years because he is perceived by the Republican base as not being sufficiently loyal to Trump, despite him voting over 90% with the President’s agenda during Trump’s first term. Regardless, it appears like Cornyn’s career is all-but-finished, assuming that Trump decides to endorse Paxton or sit this race out.