Texas Republicans may have overplayed their hand in redistricting
The new South Texas district lines, drawn to give Republicans an edge, may backfire as Latino voters continue reassessing their political loyalties in the region.
Texas Republicans recently redrew the congressional district boundaries throughout the state, morphing many Democratic seats into Republican strongholds. This was done at the behest of Donald Trump, who is worried about Republicans losing their majority in the U.S. House after the 2026 midterm elections. Even so, these efforts may not be enough to stop Democrats from taking back the House.
During the redistricting process, Republicans carefully engineered the map to secure more seats, but those efforts may ultimately backfire. New polling shows that Latino voters in South Texas aren’t buying Republican messaging this time around. Although Republicans did make gains in South Texas in 2024, the new district boundaries may not have secured Republican domination after all.
Congressional district 15, which is currently represented by Republican Monica De La Cruz, may be one of these “safe Republican” seats that could flip back to Democrats. De La Cruz has been criticized by many in South Texas for failing to show up for the district and challenge her own party on bad policy. This district only flipped to Republicans back in 2022, and this time around, De La Cruz will likely face-off against Tejano music icon Bobby Pulido who is running as a Democrat. Early polling shows Pulido slightly behind De La Cruz, with more than a year left until election day, spelling doom for De La Cruz’s re-election chances.
In Texas’ 34th congressional district, Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is the current representative. He’s a long-time moderate congressman who is a seasoned campaigner and has won in South Texas before. Going into 2026, he carries name recognition in the region which could propel him to victory if there is high Democratic turnout.
Congressman Henry Cuellar is a conservative Democrat that currently represents Texas’ 28th congressional district. Before redistricting, it was a +7 Republican district that Cuellar was able to win. The new district boundaries give Republicans a 10-point advantage, but that may not be insurmountable for Cuellar, who has held office since 2004 and repeatedly won reelection—even after being indicted on money laundering, conspiracy, and bribery charges. He may yet pull off another unexpected victory in the Republican-dominated district.
Once a Democratic stronghold, the 35th congressional district of Texas was also redrawn to eliminate another Democratic seat. The new district will consist of some Bexar County residents and encompass the entirety of Guadalupe, Wilson, and Karnes counties. Although the district’s new boundaries were drawn to give Republicans an edge, some Democratic aides believe the right kind of candidate may be able hold this seat for the party.
With the right kind of combination of voter turnout, messaging, and strategy, the Texas Democratic Party could rebuild their blue stronghold in South Texas and deliver the U.S. House to Democrats in 2026.